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El Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI) estima que el precio real de la vivienda en España está sobrevalorado entre un 15% y un 20% y estima que experimentará una corrección de la misma magnitud, según afirmó Roberto Cardarelli, economista del FMI.

Cardarelli afirmó que "en términos de crecimiento del crédito y de accesibilidad vemos que los precios reales en España se encuentran sobrevalorados entre un 15% y un 20%, lo que de hecho no es muy alto si lo comparamos con la sobrevaloración existente en otros países, entre otras razones porque España se encuentra ya en un proceso de corrección [...] Esperamos que la corrección en curso sea de la misma proporción".

Así mismo, Cardarelli destacó que los resultados del estudio no implican que es inminente un hundimiento de los precios: "Puede ocurrir lentamente, a través de la inflación", dijo. "No tiene que haber un colapso de los precios nominales", añadió. Incluso Cardarelli indicó que cinco ejercicios con inflación al 5%, por ejemplo, y con los precios nominales sin cambios supondrían una bajada de los bienes raíces del 25% en términos reales.

Cardarelli advirtió del riesgo que supone la excesiva contribución del sector de la inversión residencial a la economía española, una situación excepcional en la que sólo otro país tiene un mayor grado de riesgo, Irlanda. Según el FMI, la inversión residencial supone el 9% del PIB (el 12% en Irlanda) cuando la media del resto del mundo es el 6,5%. Esto coloca a España como uno de los países de mayor riesgo a la hora de afrontar la corrección del sector. Sin embargo el FMI dice que ‘los países que son particularmente vulnerables a una corrección en los precios son Irlanda, Reino Unido, Holanda y Francia' y añade que 'los países que han visto las mayores subidas de precios, parecen también más vulnerables, en particular, España, Dinamarca y Francia'.

También menciona el FMI que Estados Unidos es vulnerable ya que la caída de la inversión puede retirar de medio a un punto porcentual de crecimiento pero parte del ajuste de precios ya se ha hecho y que la sobrevaloración en este país ronda el 10%.

 

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Cardarelli en Napoles Italia informan en la risevta The Lancet del caso de un hombre joven que parece haber tenido varios ataques de asma provocados al conectarse a la red social Facebook. En colaboracion con un psiquiatra el paciente acepto dejar de conectarse a Facebook y los ataques de asma pararon ..Los medicos plantean que la hiperventilacion debida a observar el perfil de la ex-novia desencadenaba estos ataques de asma y senalan que se excluyeron otros posibles factores ambientales mediante un examen fisico y de los antecedentes..Los autores concluyen que este caso indica que Facebook y las redes sociales en general podrian ser una nueva fuente de estres psicologico y representar un factor desencadenante de exacerbaciones en los individuos asmaticos deprimidos.. Considerando la alta prevalencia del asma en especial entre los jovenes sugerimos que este tipo de desencadenante sea considerado en la evaluacion de los ataques de asma concluyen los autores..Fuente .DJ..

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