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Según la entidad la corrección total será del 20% al 25% en términos reales en un plazo de 6 o 7 años

El estudio 'Iberian Navigator' de Deutsche Bank ha presentado un análisis bajo el sugerente título 'El mercado español de la vivienda: living la vida loca' en el que indica que la corrección total del precio de la vivienda será del 20% al 25% en 6 o 7 años.

El Deutsche Bank pronostica que durante el presente ejercicio habrá ligeras subidas similares al IPC, para después tener una ‘gradual corrección de los precios no antes de 2008’ con bajadas nominales de entre el 2% y 8% que vendrán seguidas por 4 ó 5 años en los que los precios subirán entre un 0% y el IPC. Esto supondría según informa el Deutsche Bank un ajuste total del 20% al 25% en términos reales.

El informe califica de “insostenible” el ritmo actual de construcción de viviendas por lo que vaticina un “brusco aterrizaje” bajando a un rango entre 450.000 y 600.000 unidades en 2 o 3 años. También prevé la salida de los actores no profesionales del sector de la construcción, la bajada de la demanda extranjera y de las de carácter especulativo, pero indicando que la demanda de primera vivienda se mantendría en un nivel alto de entre 300.000 y 450.000 residencias, siendo la demanda inmigrante permitiría sostener el mercado.

El informe también destaca la desaceleración en la demanda de créditos hipotecarios motivada por las subidas de tipos de interés, los elevados precios de la vivienda y la caída de la confianza de los consumidores.

Según el Deutsche Bank la tendencia en el futuro variará en función de la evolución de factores como el desempleo y los tipos de interés, siendo el rango entre el 5,5% y el 6% la franja crítica para el incremento de la morosidad según dicho banco.

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